giovedì 7 agosto 2014

The signal and the noise - Nate Silver

Great book about predictions that try to provide subjects and objects for thinking to avoid our fallacies. Very insightful, it start to describe the parallels of the reality and the check of facts in a way that tackle the least economic crisis through the lenses as say "cognitive bias" or bias it be. Fortunately we have a fast reading supported by schematic approach to learning the numbers and the facts that formed the opinions & the past history presented by the author. We can learn to think probabilistically in the mood that helps to deny the shortcuts in handling of reason, you can see and check various predictions, from housing prices (how many in the U.S.A. know the historical tracks of bubbles?) to economy in general: inside the noise of many statistical data, try to recognize the truth is hard, but a close challenge for the 21th century.

Plain text accompained by many notes on the end of the book, a precious advice for reader can be: leave your knowledge and go to plunge yourself, chapter after chapter into a solution that seems to emerge. Not only I can't reach the perfect conscioussness in the state of the art of this science, as shown by weather forecasts, but almost in the future it will never be. Give an answer for the central question: events in the future are predictable or not? I think yet that anyone can try to organize in a way of reason statistically debated.  Yes the prediction can be made, but it maybe in small amount of cases, but the faith in research and/or in relation to past models proposed by the author, e.g. the presidentials election forecasts bear some solution.. and excuse me for missing more examples that one can draw from the lecture of about 500 pages of this book..

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